No, National Media, the Mariners Are Not Rebuilding

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Following the trade of catcher Mike Zunino to the Tampa Bay Rays, the media narrative was set. Owners of major league sports’ longest playoff drought, the Mariners were officially pulling the plug. Bring on the rebuild!

To M’s fans, the mere notion of tearing it down to the studs and starting over is beyond depressing. Yes, the team faded badly in the second half, but the 2018  club still won 89 games, sixth-most in franchise history. That club had an ace starting pitcher in James Paxton, the A.L.’s best reliever in Edwin Diaz, power and speed around the infield and rising star Mitch Haniger in right. Re-sign DH Nelson Cruz, add pitching, figure out how to juggle Robinson Cano, Dee Gordon and Ryon Healy into the lineup, sign a free agent or two and pray for better fortunes. Right?

Wrong. The blizzard of moves that followed the Zunino deal seemed to confirm the rebuild was on. Hold your breath, as the following transactions (and more!) happened in a span of 44 days:

Whew! We’d be remiss not to mention that slugger Nelson Cruz — arguably the best free agency signing in team history — inked a contract with the Minnesota Twins.

Google “Mariners rebuild” and you’ll see a zillion rebuilding doom-and-gloom media references to this off-season’s activities. “Why the Mariners rebuild is mostly beneficial to GM Jerry Dipoto’s job security and ownership” proclaimed CBS Sports. “Mariners’ rebuild painful to watch, but it didn’t have to be” trumpeted USA Today. “What GM Dipoto has left to do as the Mariners rebuild” speculated ESPN. The links go on and on.

They’re all wrong. This isn’t a rebuild. In fact, with a little luck, the M’s could once again be in the hunt for the wild card in 2019. How so?

Mariners

Scott Servais will helm the Mariners once again this year. Credit: Udeezy from Wikimedia Commons

A step back

Let’s start with General Manager Jerry Dipoto’s characterization of his off-season plan.

A tear-down, you’re just selling off anything that is not nailed down. I think when you take a step back, there’s a potential of doing some things smaller with the hope that a step back promotes two forward.

In a rebuilding effort, the M’s would eat a large portion of Kyle Seager’s contract and work a deal with the Cardinals, Yankees, Braves, Mets or Phillies. Marco Gonzales would be history, as would Mike Leake. At age 27, Ryan Healy is a trade candidate with upside. Same with the speedy Dee Gordon. Most notably, Dipoto would auction Mitch Haniger to the highest bidder, receiving a treasure trove of prospects in return.

And yet, although the current big league roster is filled with bounce-back candidates, it isn’t a mess. The M’s have formidable bats up and down the lineup and three proven starting pitchers. Meanwhile, newcomers Yusei Kikuchi and Justus Sheffield will battle with Wade LeBlanc for the final two starting spots. Only the bullpen remains a significant work in process.

The likelihood of winning 90 games this season may not be particularly good. On the other hand, the likelihood of losing 90 is low as well. Meanwhile, Dipoto adroitly executed the baseball equivalent of buying insurance in blackjack. The Astros and A’s have have kings showing, while the Mariners have a 10. If either or both have pocket aces, the Mariners’ insurance for yet another playoff-less season is the young players they’ve stockpiled.

With that said, how could the 2019 Seattle Mariners contend for the wild card?

The Mariners’ likely starting lineup has a big upside

Assuming you haven’t lived in a cave these past three years, you know how much Jerry Dipoto likes to churn the roster. It’s possible the starting nine (including DH) will be very different when they take the field against the A’s at the Tokyo Dome on March 20th. However, for the sake of discussion, we’ll assume that the following starting nine are likely to take the field. We’ll even suggest a 2019 slogan, which, like last year, says it all in one word: “Bounce!”:

1. Mallex Smith (CF) – After a breakout 2018 campaign where he batted .296 with a .773 OPS and 40 steals, Smith looks to be the team’s prime leadoff candidate. He posted a solid 3.2 oWAR.

2. Mitch Haniger (RF) – Haniger probably won’t bat leadoff this year, but he thrives early in the lineup. He isn’t the contact hitter you’d like to see here, but it’s hard to argue with a .366 OBP, not to mention an .859 OPS and 5.5 oWAR. For the traditionalists, he slugged 26 home runs, drove home 93 runs and hit .285.

3. Domingo Santana (LF) – Santana will be a steal if he returns to his 2017 form, where he belted 30 homers with 85 RBI’s, and had an OBP of .371 and OPS of .875.

4. Edwin Encarnacion (DH) – He won’t make us forget Nelson Cruz, but even in a down year (1.8 oWAR, well below his typical 3.0+ season), Encarnacion clubbed 32 home runs and plated 107 RBI’s. His OPS was a solid .810.

5. Kyle Seager (3B) – Among all the bounce-back candidates, Seager is the hardest case to argue, as he’s been on the decline for two straight years. However, at age 30, it’s still a possibility. Seager managed to hit 22 home runs with 78 RBI’s, but his oWAR was a paltry 1.2 and his OBP (.273) and OPS (.673) were dreadful.

6. Ryon Healy (1B)– Another guy with bounce-back potential. Despite hitting 24 home runs and driving home 73 runs, his oWAR was a minuscule .2 and his OBS was an equally poor .688. After a breakout 2017 campaign, his regression was palpable. At 27 years old, however, he has time to recover.

7. Omar Narvaez (C) – A catcher whose bat can produce more than a strikeout or home run, Narvaez gets on base (.366) and had a solid .794 OPS in 2018. HIs oWAR was 2.3.

8. Tim Beckham (SS) – Yet another player looking to rebound from a poor season, Beckham will likely split time with prized heir apparent J.P. Crawford. In 2017, he hit .278 with a .782 OPS and 3.4 oWAR. In a position generally not relied upon for power, he smacked 22 home runs.

9. Dee Gordon (2B) – The fifth and final bounce-back candidate, Gordon started well but faded in the second half. His 30 stolen bases were the lowest full-season total of his career, as was his .268 batting average and 1.2 oWAR.

Dipoto has an affinity for acquiring players coming off down years under the hope they will negatively regress to the mean. If Santana, Seager, Healy, Beckham and Gordon do that, this won’t just be a solid lineup — it will be good.

Incidentally, let’s not forget Jay Bruce, who hit 36 homers and drove in 101 runs in 2017 and will likely see time at DH, first and in the outfield. Bounce!

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Can Felix Hernandez rebound in 2019? Credit: Keith Allison from Owings Mills, USA via Wikimedia Commons

Starting pitching depends on a few new arms

Let’s do this quickly, as pitching statistics are notoriously more volatile.

1. Marco Gonzales – The table is set for Gonzales. He posted a 2.5 WAR and struck out 7.8 batters per nine innings, walking just 32 in 166 2/3 innings. He’s the ace.

2. Yusei Kikuchi – Assuming last year’s Nippon Professional Baseball League stats are a reasonable indicator, Kikuchi has the stuff of a number two starting pitcher. He whiffed 153 in 163 2/3 innings, going 14-4 with a 3.08 ERA.

3. Mike Leake – Leake is frequently mentioned in trade rumors, but if he stays, he slots in as a so-so number three starter.  Although his record was just 10-10 and his ERA a mediocre 4.36, his WAR was 1.7. The Astros’ Collin McHugh (albeit in fewer innings) was 2.0.

4. Felix Hernandez – Oh, how far King Felix has fallen. For now, we’ll put him in a number four role, but he could easily end up banished to the bullpen most of the year. No reason to cite stats, as they were uniformly terrible across the board.

5. Wade LeBlanc – Plucked from the scrap heap, LeBlanc had a very good 2018, going 9-5 with a 3.72 ERA and a 2.0 WAR. His numbers are comparable — and in some ways, favorable — to the Astros’ Lance McCullers, Jr.

Starting pitching is probably going to be the M’s Achilles’ heel this year. In order to content, Gonzales will need to be an ace, Kikuchi will have to seamlessly make the jump to American baseball, Felix has to reverse his implosion, and LeBlanc must show he’s for real. The wild card to a potential wild card might end up being Justus Sheffield, who will be given a real chance to make the team after demonstrating success at every level of the minors.

Who knows about the bullpen?

Dipoto frequently trades away bullpen arms, no doubt believing a competent pen is relatively easy to build. Although the team’s 2019 closer may not currently be on the roster, Shawn Armstrong looks to have first crack at the job, on the strength of both last year’s abbreviated stats with the Mariners as well as converting 15 of 17 opportunities with the Tacoma Rainiers.  With the Rainiers, he struck out a whopping 13.2 per nine innings.

How everyone else in the bullpen shakes out is a big unknown. Early candidates include Anthony Swarzak, Cory Gearrin, Chasen Bradford, Zac Rosscup, Dan Altavilla, Roneis Elias, Nick Rumbelow, Matt Festa, Gerson Bautista, Brandon Brennan, and Sam Tuivailala.

Summing it up

Unless Dipoto trades almost everyone away and goes with castoffs and minor leaguers, the M’s are going to hit this year. In fact, if a few players enjoy bounce-back campaigns, they should outpace the AL’s 11th-best offense Seattle put up last season.

Pitching is where the proverbial rubber will intersect with the long and windy road. It’s going to take some luck and the right bullpen mix, but assuming the new arms hold up and the existing ones don’t fall off, it’s possible they’ll have just enough to contend in 2019. It’s also possible they’ll be out of it by June. As Mariners fans, we’re used to that.

Either way, one thing is clear: this is not a rebuild. Stop shouting, national media.

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